The new 150m Falomo-Ozumba link bridge built by the Lekki Concession Company was commissioned on the 5th October, 2011at a cost of N2.5 billion, specifically to reduce the

torture of Ikoyi bound traffic crawling through Adeyemo Alakija. Motorists now climb unto the bridge from Ozumba Mbadiwe. In some quarter, the bridge further illuminates the

commitment of the Fashola Government towards infrastructural developement within the state, but for others, it has done little to ease the pain. The bridge meant to ease

traffic of Falomo bound motorists from Ozumba actually serves its purpose but without creating more problems for Falomo bound motorists from Akin Adesola. A practical case

of "robbing Peter to pay Paul". A solution to this may be to adjust the setting of the traffic light on the bridge such that longer time is allocated to the Akin Adesola motorists.

Though that may throw the problem back to Falomo bound motorists. Proper planning where all stakeholders are involved in the planning process and where experts opinion

are considered greatly help in ensuring that oversights like that of the streetlight does not re-occur. This example is only a fraction of numerous project oversights that are

considered holistically. The lingering log-jam in spite of the bridge is a reminder to the Government that enormous investment needs to be made in the area of transportation

infrastructure and management before the populace can really have some relief.

The first part of this article painted a picture of the origins of the Lekki-Epe road project and the objectives of the parties involved in the scheme. It went ahead to discuss from

a historic point of view the success and downfall of the toll-road strategy in Nigeria, the same now being adopted by LCC in the Lekki-Epe project. This concluding bit adopts a

first principle approach to evaluate the recent dispute between Lagosians and the combined duo of LCC and the State Government.

Back to first principles, ideally, projects of this nature and magnitude embarked upon anywhere in the world are carefully considered before they are plunged into. For

example, a thorough stakeholder analysis should have revealed potential costs and benefit to every kind of stakeholder directly or indirectly impacted by the project. From

this, decisions that suite the most important stakeholders can thus be taken. In practical terms, the decision of who the most important stakeholders are is quite difficult, yet

the fact that the scheme was done for the government points to the fact that it has to be ‘populace friendly’. Whilst from a capitalist point of view, the need to make profit is

there; such profits will have to be smartly made in such a way that eyebrows will not be raised. Fulfilling both objectives in an obviously exploitative manner has left LCC and

the government stuck in the middle, one key reason for the breakdown we have today.

Prior to a thorough stakeholder analysis being carried out, a vital tool that should have been at the foundation of the decision to invest or otherwise is the willingness to pay

(WTP) analysis which is meant to reveal in clear terms the cash flow of how much the masses are willing to pay based on perceived economic value of the project to them. A

cash flow based on these figures would have generated an overall capital outlay beyond which the investment will be a disaster. In other words, having a start-up capital to

invest should not be the sole determinant of decisions to invest but also the willingness to pay for the infrastructure by those that are being provided for. This is the gospel of

contingent valuation. Whist this article is not suggesting emphatically that LCC did not embark on this kind of multi-stage rigorous investment analysis in making their decisions,

it is only opining that perhaps this was not properly done.

Expounding a bit more on the contingent valuation point of view, when an infrastructure project is embarked upon, there is a need to measure in clear numerical terms the

perceived economic value to the society at large. In other words, if the public fails to see reasonable economic value in such a project, expected returns are bound to fail,

especially when they are investment partnerships with a life span. Economists base the concept of value on decision framework within which rational individuals make the best

use of resources and opportunities. The framework assumes that the individual members of the economy react systematically to perceived changes in their situation. Such

changes can include addition to the quantity and quality of the road resource of primary interest, prices, costs, institutional constraints and incentives, income and wealth

(Young, 2006). From a utilitarian approach, a commodity has economic value when users are willing to pay for it rather than do without, also called the greatest good to the

greatest number of people.

But, an analysis of economic values for road-related projects is seldom an easy task. The analysis of the demand side for road infrastructure projects requires as much

specialised skill as is required by our colleagues from engineering to perform their supply-side studies. It is from this that the WTP for the infrastructure is determined. In clearer

terms, WTP is a monetary measure of the intensity of individual road user preferences. The overall outcome of this investigation should be the basis of all decisions to be made

about the project. In conclusion therefore, as decisions on the way forward hangs aloof, LCC may be forced to undertake further studies using the tools described above to

determine reasonable levies that will not cause discomfort for the masses, failure of which will amount to further mess.

Recently, the Lagos State government chose to adopt a globally renowned strategy but nouvelle in the Nigerian context, of partnering with private investors to provide road

infrastructure within the State.Prior to this time however, the constant worry of past administrations had been the enormity of costs (running into trillions of Naira) needed to

cater for the infrastructure deficit in the state. The out-of-the-box solution was to initiate a public-private partnership to end the miseries of the government and spawn a

smart way forward. This solution birthed the Lekki Concession Company (LCC), an initiative of the ARM group of companies.

LCC was an investment vehicle that sought to provide the much needed infrastructure and recoup the investment at an interest before reverting full rights to the government

, in technical terms, also known as ‘Build, Operate and Transfer’. In the agreement signed with the state government, the concession term within which LCC owns full rights to

the project is 30 years. From an investment perspective, it is expected that LCC would recoup the investment within this period at an interest before conceding the rights back

to the original owner – the government. Strategically therefore, the success of the project lies within the boundaries of ‘smart operations’ which raises the question - how will

the investment be recouped? More importantly from a capitalist’s point of view - how can returns be maximised from the investment?

Investments in similar projects in other parts of the world were recouped by using toll-gates. The concept of toll-roads is not strange to Nigerians. In the past, some of our

major inter-state high ways, for example, the Lagos-Ibadan expressway were maintained by huge sums of money motorists paid for plying the routes. As useful as this

concept was, it was killed by the spirit of corruption that gradually crept up our sleeves over time. The result was the demolition of the toll gates that led to the ‘death’ of the

road and other high-ways that were once maintained under the scheme. As at today, the looming deaths on our major highways leads back to the same reason for which the

toll roads were built in the first instance – to make our roads self-sustainable by using them to generate the funds needed to keep them in proper condition. Before the collapse

of the toll-gates however, their successes were quite enormous. Up to the early 1990s, motorists never complained of the levies at the toll-gates because they were within

their economic capacity. Also, the fares levied by commercial vehicles plying the routes then were never as outrageous as they are today. Therefore, the costs we have

incurred by killing the toll-scheme have outweighed in limitless folds the costs we could have incurred had we fought to keep the scheme alive. In other words, the levies of

commercial vehicles as of today are more for ‘motor insurance’ than ‘successful commuting’ because of the obvious risks that have arisen from the appalling state of our

major high-ways. It is worthy to note however, that this scheme was run by the government back in the time when Nigerians had relatively stronger confidence in the activities

of their government. Today, the dynamics have changed and the landscape is different. We live in times where every move of the government is seen as a money looting

jamboree and the mind-set of the Nigerian populace is such that every penny that goes into the hands of the government is never re-invested for the good of all, but for the

good of a powerful few. It is therefore important that this particular change in thinking as well as other key changes (negative ones) in the various spheres of our society be

put into consideration in charting a way forward. LCC has adopted the same toll-gate principle as the strategic tool to recoup their investment in the Lekki - Epe road project.

Undoubtedly, it is the most obvious vehicle to channel huge returns back to their coffers but the key question bearing in mind the afore-mentioned changes in the Nigerian

dynamics is - how can the toll-road project be made a success?

Before projects and strategies of this kind are implemented, there are fundamental questions that need cogent answers. As a guide, the dispute that has arisen on the Lekki

road project, now in court stemmed from the exorbitant fares to be collected at the toll-gates and other key issues such as the length of the concession term, the creation of

an alternative route amongst others. For example, normal cars are required to pay N 120, motorcycles N 50 and other types of vehicles a lot more than these as they pass

each toll gate along the project stretch. There are three of such gates implying three times the above figures for motorists going to the Epe end. Without doing any boring

arithmetic, the multiplier effects of these levies are so enormous that they will only add salt to the already open, untreated economic wounds Lagosians are carrying around

this season. Given the exploitative mindset an average Nigerian has, these kinds of fares will only give an excusable opportunity to commercial motorists, commercial

motorcyclists, traders and even food vendors as well as other stakeholders to hike the prices of their products and services without mercy! The outcome will only amount to

more pain and suffering to the ‘common man’.

That Nigeria suffers acute deficiency in key infrastructure across the length and breadth of the country is no longer news. What is news for some time is the stride Lagos State

is said to have made, particularly in the area of physical development. It is important to state that the pass mark given to Lagos was based on its performance relative to other

states in the federation. It must be pointed out that most of these other states performed woefully in the area of development. While the leadership in Lagos state must be

encouraged with commendation for its relative achievements, it is imperative that its government must be advised to seek true yardstick of measurement. From various

speeches, authorities in Lagos seek to make the state a globally competitive place. To achieve this noble goal, its current tempo has to change fundamentally.

Lagos is Nigeria’s commercial capital and the 24^th megacity in the world. The state of its roads remains appalling notwithstanding some gains made. The pain, anguish and

hardship faced by users show no letting. Hours unending are spent in traffic daily. The adverse implications of this for business and health of the citizens are enormous. The

stress of navigating most parts of the state is irreconcilable with the vision of becoming a globally competitive centre.

Many key highways in the state are daily torture routes for the citizens; while the inner roads seem to have been left out of the contemplation of authorities for action. They

are more of paths than roads! That most people go through same frustration on roads to their houses and places of activities for years, with hope occasionally rising, only to be

dashed is sad. There is an urgent need for sound strategy and strong action to deal with this ugly situation. When? Since yesterday!!